15 May 2008

Lebanon a case study in the Iranian method

The recent events in Lebanon are a perfect example of the Iranian method of revolution. They follow a pretty consistent set of steps.

  1. Select or create one or many proxy organization whom they share a common enemy or ideology.
  2. Train and resource the proxy.
  3. Have the proxy start a fight, large enough to be significant, but short of an all out revolution.
  4. Continue the fight until there is a moderate breakdown of order.
  5. Appear magnanimous by ending the conflict in the name of saving the country or people. As part of the settlement demand a larger share of the power.
  6. Once the fight is over fill the void in civil services left by the breakdown of order with their own services. This includes setting up hospitals, schools, housing assistance, collecting taxes, utilities.
  7. Use these services as a platform for building popular support for military activities or democratic support.
  8. Repeat steps 1 though 6 as often as needed to gain regional control and influence.
This is the same play book they followed in Lebanon when they picked a fight with Israel, and what they are doing right now, it also worked to gain control of Gaza.

The problem is not just limited to Lebanon, Israel and Palestine. They have been backing all of the prominent Iraqi political parties for years. Members of the current Iraqi government continue to draw a pension from Iran from their time serving as proxies against Saddam, while they complain about Iranian funding for al'Sadr.

You have to give them credit. It is a very effective strategy so long as they don't get themselves into to large of a fight. Even large fights are easy to disengage with when everyone just puts down their gun and takes off a ski mask.